I will be at the Presidents Cup all weekend (GO TEAM USA!!!!) so I will not be around a ton, but make sure you check out Gamblers Paradise Discordas there are a lot of really fun/smart sports bettors there sharing their thoughts on angles for a long list of sports!
Some fun trends:
The Jets, Giants, Lions, and Jaguars all won last Sunday. It was the first time they all won on the same day in almost 11 years
The last 3 years have seen 27 teams go 0-2, an average of 9 a year, and none have made the playoffs. This year we have 5 teams that are 0-21
Per DraftKings, Unders are 22-10 on the season
Per Action Network, underdogs with totals lower than 42 are 89-55-4 ATS since 2018, there are 5 of these this week
Per Action Network, teams that are 0-2 straight up and against the spread are 37-23 ATS in Week 3- there are 3 of these teams this week
Unlike the last few weeks my model has greatly reduced its risk and I think a bit too much so you will see I am attacking a couple of games that it is passing on. For those games, I put my picks in the “verdict” and I also added the game with the odds in the “Parlays, Teasers, and Others” section.
Week 3
Game 1: Steelers @ Browns (Thursday 8:15 pm) -1u
Game 2: Texans @ Bears (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Texans’ D has held opposing QBs to 56% completion and 33% on 3rd down.
Chicago's run D was bottom 3rd last year and has given up close to 190 per game this year
Per Warren Sharp, the Bears have the highest 3-and-out drive percentage at 55% and the Texans are tied for the 2nd highest at 44%
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Texans +3 (-120)
My 2 cents - I might end up alone on the Fields fan island because he has looked dreadful. His QBR (as measured by ESPN) is only 23.9 which is 2nd worst and only a couple of spots worse than Davis Mills (30.0 rating). Now Houston’s D has been fantastic as seen by the stats above and I think they really take it to the Bears.
Verdict - I think Texans win this outright so I am following the model with Texans +3 and will use the ML in exotics
Game 3: Raiders @ Titans (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am honestly not sure I have a good feeling for either of these teams. The Raiders are 0-2 and I have missed my handicapping of both their games. I thought McDaniels and Lombardi would run the ball and they have, but they seemed to abandon it too quickly last week. I wanted to do the Jacobs prop bet for a 3rd week in a row but I worry Titans D is going hold tough on the ground. I am interested to see if the Raiders can get their pass rush going.
Verdict - Pass
Game 4: Chiefs @ Colts (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Zak Keefer, since 2003 the Colts have been shut out only 3 times in 361 games, all against the Jags
Willie Gay has been suspended for 4 games
Per Trey Wingo, Mahomes is 13-0 when favored on the road, only Troy Aikman had a longer streak (16) to start a career
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Colts +5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I know the Colts had no WRs last week but they looked REALLY bad. In my QB rankings, I mentioned Ryan’s arm was starting to weaken and I honestly didn’t expect it to look this bad, is it a blimp or more permanent? Also, what is the deal with this team’s OL? They ran the rock well last year but and this year has looked poor. Pair that with the fact the Chiefs have only given up 3.9 YPC this season and I would be worried here except for the fact Willie Gay is suspended and that loss cannot be underestimated. Also, I believe the Cheifs will be the team that everyone uses for ML parlays and teasers and that is always something to be wary of.
Verdict - This line just seems weird and I do not want to be on the heavy public side so I am going with my model Colts +5.5
Game 5: Bills @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Waddle Waddle TD celebration is wonderful
Last week’s Bills’ home MNF win was their first in 28 years
Per Joe Osborne, the Bills have won 7 straight versus the Dolphins with 6 being by double digits
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dolphins +5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Dolphins come back was fun but please miss me with all this Tua love2. As I will talk about below, the Ravens' D was designed poorly, resulting in wide-open guys running downfield. Oh and do not forget, Tua underthrew every one of those deep balls. The Bills on the other hand continue to seem like a buzz saw, but something to keep an eye on is the continuing injury problems in their defensive backfield3.
Verdict - I do love home underdogs in divisional matchups, Miami +5.5
Game 6: Lions @ Vikings (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Lions have scored 35+ in their last 3 games
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay, say it with me - “I will NOT bet on Kirk Cousins in prime time” I was dead wrong about the Lions last week. They absolutely beat the shit out of Washington and that game was over very quickly. I think this team is super fun and their offensive play calling by Ben Johnson has a lovely rhythm to it which is resulting in a creative and explosive offense.
Verdict - Pass
Game 7: Ravens @ Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Ravens blew a 21-point lead in the 4th quarter last week. That broke a streak of 711 straight victories for a team-leading by 21+ in the 4th
Per Joe Osborne, the Patriots have been a home underdog 19 times under Bill Belichick and are 15-4 ATS in those games
Ravens’ D is giving up 379 passing yards per game and 463.5 yards overall, both worst in the NFL
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Lamar was phenomenal last week, but their D was a disaster. As I discussed above, much of the Dolphins’ success late was due to Mike MacDonald’s insisting on giving free releases to Waddle and Tyreek with no safety help over the top. It was legit the one thing he could not do. On the other side, Mac Jones looked really bad again this week and really should have thrown 3 or 4 picks.
Verdict - While my model is passing I already bet the Ravens here for 0.5u (you'll see this below). I just do not see Mac Jones being able to threaten the Ravens deep.
Game 8: Bengals @ Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Jets beat the Bengals 34-31 at home in week 8 last year in a game started by Mike White
Bengals are 0-2 and have lost to Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush
Burrow got sacked 51 times last season and is on pace to get sacked 111 times this year
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Garret Wilson got banged up last week but he looked really good for the Jets. Something that I have not seen talked about a bunch is the fact that Greg Zuerlein and his watermelon kick is a real weapon for onsides kicks. Look, the Bengals are going to get Joe Burrow hurt and he knows it because he is asking for more protection during games. Per ESPN and their pass rush win rate, the Cowboys (5th) and Steelers (15th4) have FAR better pass rush attacks than the Jets (30th) so it seems that the Jets might struggle to attack the Bengals’ biggest weakness.
Verdict - I think this will be a Bengals ‘get right game’ but I am going to take a pass here but going to use Bengals in exotics
Game 9: Eagles @ Washington (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Jalen Hurts is now the 3rd favorite in MVP odds
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Washington +6.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Eagles have a short week and this line is suspicious to me as the Eagles should romp over Washington in a stadium that should be heavily dominated by Eagles supporters. This will be a question of whether Washington can keep Jalen Hurts in the well.
Verdict - I really do not like what I have seen from Washington so I am going to Pass
Game 10: Saints @ Panthers (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Jay Glazer, Jameis Winston is playing with a broken back.
Saints turned the ball over 4 times in the 4th quarter last week (3 picks and 1 fumble)
Under Rhule, the Panthers are 1-25 when giving up at least 17 points
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am going to stay away from this and here is why. I would love to pick the Saints against a Panthers team that I think is terrible, but Jameis has a broken back and is a turnover factory. I find it super interesting to see if the Panthers can cause a turnover as they haven’t taken the ball away yet, and that includes multiple dropped INTs vs Danny “Loose Change” Jones. I also want to see if the Saints can get any pass rush as they only have 1 sack so far.
Verdict - Pass
Game 11: Jaguars @ Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Doctor treating Justin Herbert’s rib injury is the same one that tried to give Tyrod Taylor a shot in the same area of the body that allegedly (lawsuit is pending) puncture Taylor’s lung, which led to Herbert taking over
The Jaguars have forced 6 turnovers
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Jaguars +7 (-115)
My 2 cents - Here is a serious question, will there be empty seats at this game? This is the worst home field crowd and the Jags fans do not travel. Who is going to this game?!? Now to the two teams, the Jags might be legit frisky as they beat the Colts up and down the field last week. Doug Pederson should get some credit for changing his game plan from Week 1 to put Trevor Lawrence in a better position to succeed. They go against a Chargers team with beat-up Justin Hebert that has really not impressed me other than Mike Williams being an absolute monster.
Verdict - I might regret saying this but I really like Jags +7 and I would not be SHOCKED if the Jags won outright.
Game 12: Rams @ Cardinals (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Arizona does not look well coached and if a team can keep Kyler “in the well” things are a huge problem for him because he can’t see over the linemen. In the 2nd half last week, he was able to break out of the pocket and bring his team back. That all said, who are the real Cards? What happened to the Rams' ability to run the ball? Can Stafford stop turning the ball over?
Verdict - This game should be one we all want to watch and it just isn’t - Pass
Game 13: Falcons @ Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Seahawks have not scored an offensive TD since the 5:34 mark of the 2nd quarter of Week 1
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I know I said it last week and I still think it is true, Arthur Smith is running a super fun offense in Atlanta and I am really interested to see how it goes against the Seahawks Tampa 2.
Verdict - I am going to Pass, but I am going to personally keep an eye on the live odds during the game and if the Seahawks are favored by a TD or more at any point I am going to bet on the Falcons’ spread and money line. I will use Falcons in some exotics.
Game 14: Packers @ Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Buccaneers D is giving up 6.5 points per game
Mike Evans is suspended for this game
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This game is going to be the one I am most looking forward to watching. I honestly do not know what is going to happen. The Packers D is not playing as well as I expected this season, but the Bucs’ WR corps is greatly hampered by injury and suspension. If I had to bet something on this game I would go with the under.
Verdict - My model says this line is dead on balls accurate - Pass
Game 15: 49ers @ Broncos (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Broncos have had more delay of game (4) and false start (6) penalties than any team in the NFL
In 5 goal to go situations, the Broncos have scored zero touchdowns
Per Matthew Freedman, Jimmy G is 16-4 ATS as an underdog
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I have been out on the Broncos from the start and nothing these last 2 weeks has changed my mind. I think Russ is cooked and until he starts to run he is not going to be successful. I also enjoy folks now realizing Nathaniel Hackett is not a good coach; any Syracuse, Bills, or Jaguars fan could have told you that. I got questions from a few folks about what I thought about Lance getting hurt and replaced by Jimmy G. Look I feel bad for the kid5 but he can’t play at this level and the players in that locker room know it. There is a scouting saying of “sometimes you are only one injury away from being good” and as harsh as this sounds, I think this makes the 49ers 2-3 wins better this year, likely dooms my under-wins bet, and I would look at the NFC (9-1) and SB (20-1) odds to see if you personally think there is value there.
Verdict - I know the model is passing but I am betting on the 49ers ML for 1u as I am VERY out on the Broncos and a coaching matchup between Shanahan and Hackett heavily slanted towards the 49ers.
Game 16: Cowboys @ Giants (Monday 8:15 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Bard Spielberger, Zeke Elliott’s cap hit is $2.5m more than any other team’s entire RB cap hit combined
Dallas’ D has faced Brady and Burrow and has only given up 2 TDs (only 1 through the air)
Per Todd Archer, Micah Parsons has 15 pass rush wins, there are 7 teams with 15 or fewer
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Dallas +1 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Giants are the softest 2-0 in the NFL. They remind me of last year’s Panthers who started 3-0 and then fell apart. This team is not good and really should have lost both games and even Mike Francesa can see they are winning in spite of Daniel Jones. I think Daniel Jones is going to get battered by this Dallas defensive line. Cowboys need to have the same game plan as long as Cooper Rush is in - don’t cost yourself the game on offense, win the game with defense and special teams. Another thing to keep an eye out for is that, as Bobby Belt pointed out, the Giants struggle with counterplays, and Dallas was able to hit a really nice one last week.
Verdict - How bout them Cowboys?!?
My model’s outlay - 6.5 units of risk (including TNF)
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Last week was really poor on my exotics, though my props did well! I think where I missed really was the fact I was too expansive given that it is so early in the season. I am going to keep it even lighter this week:
Loss - 0.5u 6pt teaser +150 Dallas +7 / Texans +8.5 / Steelers +10.5 - I can’t believe how I lost this last night.
Pending - 0.5u 6pt teaser +150 Dallas +7 / Ravens +3 / Falcons +7.5
0.5u on Ravens -3 (-102)
1u on 49ers Money Line (-122)
1u parlay +147 - Eagles -280 / 49ers -122
0.5u Jets / Bengals 1st half under 22 (-110)
0.5u Packers / Bucs under 42 (-110)
0.5u parlay +250 - Lions +6 / Jaguars +7
0.5u parlay +245 - Raiders -130 / Falcons -105
0.25u parlay +402 - 49ers -122 / Bengals -245 / Falcons -103
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +823 - Cardinals +160 / Jags +255
Player Props
Loss - 0.25u on Pat Freiermuth to score a TD +260
0.5u on Kirk over 60.5 receiving yards -120
0.25u on Patrick Mahomes over 288.5 passing yards -115
0.25u on Mixon over 75.5 rushing yards -120
0.25u on Dameon Pierce over 58.5 rushing -130
0.25u Dallas / NYG Defense or Special teams TD to be scored +200
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
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Survivor Thoughts
I was asked last week how I come up with the teams to cover here which is a great question!! I use the top 5 or 6 teams by percentage picked on BetOnline’s survivor contest and give my thoughts! Here are the ones I am passing on.
Chiefs - Similar to the Bengals last week they are the team in every teaser and money line parlay this week so the books will need an Indy cover and they will have a party if the Colts can win outright
Vikings - This just completely feels like we might have Scott Hansen saying “let’s go back to Minnesota where Detroit is giving the Vikings all they can handle”
Chargers - The Jags have been playing well, especially on D and I am not in love with putting all my hopes on a broke Herbert
My options are going to be:
Bengals - The Jets are a little frisky but I do not think they can hurt the Bengals where they are weak
Eagles - I do not like to take road teams in divisional matchups but Washington seems to be really bad, especially on D
I am going with the Bengals as my pick for Week 36
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Panthers, and Falcons
Oh, and before you come at me with the passing yard stats, let’s look at who else is near the top of that list and you tell me if those are good QBs.
The injury to Bills’ corner Dane Jackson was terrifying. The news is that he not only had all feeling in his extremities but he was able to walk out of the hospital on Tuesday.
This is skewed as the 2nd game didn’t include TJ Watt and the Bengals and their crappy OL had to deal with him
By all reports, he is a really good kid and he has had a very bad injury (it looked similar to Dak’s). I think we all wish him a speedy and full recovery, but one thing that really worries me (and Trent Dilfer) for the young man is that he will now have had basically 3 years without playing football. I cannot imagine that is good for his development.
Week 1 pick was Ravens and Week 2 was Rams