Wrap Around Recap!!
We had a great year last year that was recapped in a post a few weeks ago.
In short, we turned a 59 unit profit with a 36.5% ROI and the season is not over with this new calendar-based season the PGA Tour has adopted.
So let’s get to the fall season!
Open Futures Tickets!!
Given that it has been a bit since we placed these and we have tons of newer folks joining us (hi!!!!!) I wanted to remind everyone of the open Futures tickets we have:
2023 Ryder Cup
0.5u on Europe to win +175 (From July 24th) ← Currently +125
88th Masters
0.25u on Will Zalatoris +4000 (From July 3rd) ← Currently +3300
0.5u on Cam Young +3300 (From July 24th) ← Currently +2500
106th PGA Championship
0.5u Rickie Fowler +4000 (From July 24th) ← Currently +4000
124th US Open
0.5u on Rickie Fowler +4000 (From July 24th) ← Currently +4000
152nd Open
0.5u on Tony Finau +5000 (From July 24th) ← Currently +4000
Early Season Golf
Alright, so let’s discuss these early season golf tournaments (aka from now until the Sentry Tournament of Champions the first week of January).
These tournaments are all going to be relatively weak fields with many guys using this time to rest, spend time with family, work on their games, play on the DP World Tour, and maybe do anything other than competitive golf! Accordingly, you will notice my plays will be lighter than you are normally used to and I will likely focus on some longer shots as we are likely to see some winners that only the hardcore golf fans have ever heard of because many of these tournaments are wide open.
Make sure you are keeping your bankroll management standards as we start to have multiple sports running at once!1
Obviously, next week is the Ryder Cup and we locked in a 0.5u on Team Europe back on July 24th! As such, there will be no golf post.
Fortinet Championship
The PGA tour starts its fall calendar with a trip to Napa, California to visit the North Course at Silverado Country Club. This course plays to a par 72 over a distance of ~7,150 yards. The winners of this tournament tend to be those who shoot in the high teens so do not be surprised by -16 to -19 winning score. That said, this should be tight down the stretch as the history of this tournament has been mostly Playoffs and 1 shot victories.
The 2022 Fortinet saw co-favorite Max Homa (18-1 odds) capture his 2nd consecutive title in Napa when he shot -16 to beat Danny Willett (125-1) by 1 stroke. The 2021 edition saw Max Homa (60-1 odds) shoot -19 to capture the first of his back-to-back Fortient titles when he topped Mav McNealy (50-1) by 1 stroke, and 2020 saw Stewart Cink (-21) win as a 200-1 shot when he topped Harry Higgs (80-1) by 2 strokes.
Stewart Cink’s victorious score of -21 in 2020 is the lowest to par in this tournament’s history, while the aggregate record of 262 was achieved 5 times in 2008 and 2009 when it resulted in playoffs in back-to-back years.
While these fall tournaments generally do not have strong fields we do have world number 7 golfer Max Homa attending to defend his title as well as show respect to one of his main sponsors. Justin Thomas also is in the 156-man field this week as he looks to ensure his OWGR doesn’t slip.
Given the weak field and that we have the BMW PGA Championship (to see if we can go back-to-back after last week’s 50-1 winner), I am keeping it pretty light with 4.75u of risk:
Outright2:
0.75u Stephan Jaeger +2500
0.6u Beau Hossler +3000
0.4u Lucas Herbert +4500
0.25u Sam Stevens +7000
T10 (0.25u on each):
Stephan Jaeger +250
Beau Hossler +275
Kevin Yu +650
T20
0.5u Sahith Theegala +110
0.5u Stephan Jaeger +115
0.5u Beau Hossler +120
0.25u Doug Ghim +240
0.25u Kevin Yu +300
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Daily Fantasy
I’m going to take a pass
Good luck in all your action!
I have said it before, and I will say it again - I believe in doing the 1% bankroll method PER SPORT. That means each unit = 1% of your bankroll for THAT sport. You can, and should, have different-sized bankrolls for each sport sized by how confident you are in that sport. For example, if you have a total of 10K then you could do something like 5k for NFL, 3k for NBA, and 2K for the PGA Tour so your unit sizes would be 50, 30, and 20 respectively. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE bet responsibly and you can ALWAYS have less than 1% be your units.
I am going to try to get Theegala for parlay action