Recap - Genesis Invitational
Cantlay had a 5-stroke lead after 36 holes and a 2-stroke lead going into the final round at a course he has referred to as his home course given he grew up there and played there a bunch when he was in college at UCLA. What bad could happen? Well, the flu.
As bad as Cantlay was on Saturday, he was even worse on Sunday, but it is hard to not be impressed by what Hideki did. I mean the dude not only shot -9, but hit his approach shots to a total of 14 inches on 15 and 16, and, in the words of the immortal Pedro Martinez, sometimes you just have to tip your cap…..but I am not calling Hideki my daddy.
Ultimately we lost 1.8u, which is incredibly disappointing given where we were sitting and not just from an outright perspective!! We also had Beau “the boat shoe” Hossler bogey 18 to fall out of the Top 20 and Kurt Kitayama go +4 in the final round to fall out of the Top 20 as well.
It wasn’t all bad though! Cantlay did come through Top 10 and Top 20, Aberg had a great Sunday back 9 to get Top 20, English cashed his Top 20 quite easily and Luke List saved my blushes in the Head-to-head market. That all said, that wasn’t the thing that got me most excited this weekend………
That would be our open Masters ticket on Willy Z (0.5u +4500 From July 3rd and Oct 2nd)!!
Mexico Open
The course:
The PGA Tour now heads from California south of the border to Villa Hidalgo, Mexico for the Mexico Open, which dates back to 1944 and is considered the Mexican national championship!
This 132-person tournament takes place at Vidanta Vallarta’s Greg Norman-designed Signature Course, where it was contested the last 2 years when it became an official PGA Tour event for the first time. If you would like some interesting information on the tournament, I suggest checking out this great interview Matt Vincenzi did last year with the tournament’s director.
The course runs along the Ameca River and boasts gorgeous views of the Sierra Madre Mountain Range and plays to a par 71 across 7,456 yards.
A few things to note here:
As I pointed out on the Kenya Open post earlier today, this course is similarly odd with five Par 3s and four Par 5s to contend with, but unlike in that post, distance off the tee is going to be crucial here.
The last two times they played this tournament it was late-April
This paspalum course plays to every bit of its listed length as it is just a couple of miles from the coast and its very generous fairways and limited rough makes this a course that asks its competitors to take the driver off the tee. Even with so much driver off the tee, the length of this course also means we will see some longer approach shots, but be careful as there are a ton of bunkers around these greens.
Bunkers are not the only thing you have to contend with here as there are waste areas and water all over this course, as well as some tricky fall-offs around the greens.
Prior results:
2023 - 2nd favorite Tony Finau (17/2) shot a tournament record -24 and beat tournament favorite Jon Rahm (3-1) by 3 strokes
2022 - Betting favorite Jon Rahm (9/2) won by shooting -17 and beating Tony Finau (20-1), Kurt Kitayama (150-1), and Brandon Wu (100-1) by 1 stroke.
2021 - Alvaro Ortiz (-23) beat Drew Nesbitt by 3 strokes
2019 - Drew Nesbitt (-17) beat Andreas Halvorsen and Gustavo Silva by 2 strokes
Last year’s first-round leader was Austin Smotherman who shot an opening round 63 on his way to a tie for 5th place. The eventual winner, Tony Finau, shot 65 to sit 2 strokes off the lead after 18 holes.
Last year we had a very ho-hum Mexico Open, with a 1.2u loss (-15.3% ROI).
The bets:
We have a very lackluster field this week and that is not overly surprising. Yes, Tony Finau is back to defend his title, but he is only 1 of the 4 guys within the top 50 of the OWGR that has decided to head to Mexico. You will see that I am heavy guys coming from the DPWT and I explain some of that in the footnotes.
Finau is a worthy favorite but I can’t stomach playing him this short. The public plays this week are almost certainly going to be Davis Thompson, Keith Mitchell, and Taylor Pendrith. I have been told by a source that Davis and Keith are getting a ton of public action and the bookmakers do not seem that concerned as the numbers have not budged. While I understand folks loading up on Thompson and Mitchell, I do not fully get the Pendrith play. Sure he is long and can putt, but the 28-1 number is FAR too short for my liking.
As we look further down the board, I also took a long look at Thorbjorn Olesen (he is a little too short for me and I am already DPWT heavy, but he will be who I focus my parlays on this week and be featured heavily in my placement bets), Ryan Fox (I will use him in placement markets), Patrick Rodgers (good history but not enough for me), Michael Kim (burned me last time I used him), Jake Knapp (he might be the biggest surprise rookie not named Pavon), and Sam Stevens (I missed the best of the number and he seems to be a Gambling Twitter darling so that scares me).
We also have the Magical Kenya Open this week on the DPWT (link to picks) so we do have to keep some powder dry, but I am going with 6.7u of risk this week:
Outright1:
1u on Nicolai Hojgaard 16-12
0.355 Ryo Hisatsune 45-1
0.26u SH Kim 60-1
0.16u Carson Young 100-1
0.16 JJ Spaun 100-1
Top 10 (0.25u each)3:
Thorbjorn Olesen +330
Ryan Fox +400
Ryo Hisatsune +475
SH Kim +525
Top 20
1u Nicolai Hojgaard -105
0.5u Thorbjorn Olesen +150
0.5u Ryan Fox +200
0.25u JJ Spaun +300
0.25u Carson Young +350
0.25u Andrew Novak +450
Matchups
0.675u Ryo Hisatsune over Mackenize Hughes -135
0.345u Chan Kim over Patton Kizzire -138
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Good luck with all your action!
One long shot that came VERY close to being on my card is Sami Valimaki. It would have been 0.16u of a bet at 100-1 odds. I think I am personally going to take it, but I think we have enough risk for the official card.
When handicapping golf, one of the things we all have to try and think about is what courses might be a comp for this course, and with a course that has only been used twice we have limited course history, BUT here at Titanic HQ, we are going to draw a comparison to Al Hamra Golf Club where the Ras al Khaimah Championship is held and Nicolai won that tournament as did Ryan Fox who we will use for placement bets. Further to this point, I am heavy guys on the DPWT this week and here is why - I think the quality of play at the top of the DPWT is better than the Korn Ferry and I think some of these guys who have come over are ready to compete right away (eye ball emoji Mr Pavon).
I know it is curious that I am not betting Hojgaard here and I wanted to at his +200 number, but here is the main reason - given the 1u outright and the 1u T20 so that is 2u of risk on him. If I am wrong, I do not want to be flushing more and more units down the toilet.